Gas prices have risen sharply since the start of the Iran war, raising concerns about discretionary spending as consumers have less money left over after filling up their tanks. The impact lands hardest on lower and middle-income households, who allocate a greater portion of their wallet to gas on a regular basis. However, recent headlines suggest a deal to end the war may be nearing. If this comes to fruition and if gas prices begin a sustained decline, who might benefit from that wallet relief? 2022 might offer some clues.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the national average gas price in the US peaked near $5.00 in June 2022 and fell to about $3.20 by year-end. The year-over-year increase decelerated from about +50% in Q2 to under 10% in Q4. Consumer Edge US data shows which brands experienced meaningful improvements in spend growth between Q2 and Q4 2022, providing a roadmap for potential beneficiaries if gas prices come down in the second half of 2026. Notably, these brand accelerations were more dramatic than those of their respective subindustries.
The consumer backdrop is quite different today than in 2022, and the observed accelerations reflected a combination of easing comparisons, inflation dynamics, category-specific factors and fuel relief. As a result, this analysis should be viewed as a historical roadmap rather than a causal estimate of the impact of lower gasoline prices.
Brands in the footwear/athletic apparel/sporting goods space appear prominently on the list, reflecting the discretionary nature of the categories that are among the first to get cut when budgets tighten and the first to come back when they loosen. Dick’s Sporting Goods experienced a 17 pt growth acceleration, followed by Foot Locker at 11 pts, Under Armour and Nike at 9 pts, and Columbia Sports at 5 pts. Note that this data includes direct-to-consumer only (company-owned stores and websites), and Nike and Under Armour were both pushing direct-to-consumer and pulling volume out of wholesale in 2022, contributing to the gains our data captures.
Off-price retailers were notable gainers as well. Marshalls accelerated 9 pts, TJ Maxx 8 and dd’s Discounts 6, likely reflecting renewed demand from lower-income households and middle and higher-income bargain hunters as budgets loosened.
Quick-service, casual dining and select grocery names saw meaningfully improved trends, although some of that benefit may be price-driven amid volatile food inflation in 2022. Among restaurants on the list, Jack in the Box and Chili’s accelerated 8 pts, McDonald’s and Dunkin’ both at 5, and Pizza Hut at 3. In grocery, Food 4 Less ex-fuel was the standout, accelerating 14 pts, as the banner’s lower-income customer base shows where demand can snap back when gas comes down.
IKEA stood out at a 12 pt improvement, potentially reflecting deferred purchases coming back once households feel some room.
Notes: minimum spend filter applied; only select key industries included; only brands whose growth acceleration was greater than their respective subindustries are included.
