Since the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to tanker traffic, dramatically impacting global energy markets. In the U.S., the national average for regular gasoline has crossed $4 for the first time since 2022. A ceasefire is now in place, but analysts caution that a return to pre-war prices is unlikely anytime soon given damaged infrastructure and uncertainty around tanker passage through the strait.
The consumer impact is showing up in the data.
The First YoY Increase in Over Three Years
Consumer Edge credit and debit card data shows that for most of the past three-plus years, the percentage of consumer spending allocated to gas has been declining year-over-year. That trend ran uninterrupted from mid-2022 through early 2026, driven by falling pump prices and a gradual shift in how consumers were allocating their budgets.
That trend has now been broken. During the 35-day period ended 3/29/26, the share of wallet going to gas turned positive on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 2022. The increase is still relatively tame compared to 2022, but the direction is notable and worth watching as gas prices remain well above their pre-war levels.
Broad-Based, but Concentrated at the Lower End
The shift is happening across income groups, but not equally. Low- and middle-income consumers (household income under $80,000) are showing the most pronounced jump in gas share of wallet on a year-over-year basis. Higher-income groups are moving in the same direction but with less force.
This dynamic is consistent with what broader research on fuel price shocks has shown. Lower-income households have less flexibility to absorb fuel cost increases through other budget adjustments. When pump prices move, it shows up faster and more dramatically in their spending allocation.
Where Wallet Share Is Moving
The reallocation of consumer spending goes beyond gas. Looking at share of wallet shifts across industries in the most recent 35-day period ending March 29 versus the prior year, a few patterns stand out.
Online retail broadlines is the clearest winner, but participation is uneven among income groups. Households earning above $100,000 are driving the move, while lower-income groups are seeing essentially no change. This dynamic could be explained by the fact that higher-income consumers have higher baseline adoption of online shopping, the financial flexibility to buy in bulk, and the ability to pull purchases forward in anticipation of further price increases. Lower-income consumers, already stretched by higher gas costs, have less room to do any of that.
Home and garden is giving up meaningful share, with the decline broad-based across income groups as the housing market continues to face challenges and mortgage rates remain elevated. Electronics and software, sporting goods, and automotive are all in negative territory as well.
Note: not all industries displayed.
