CMG Earnings Beat? That'll Be Extra

Market Hit: Leveraging Consumer Edge Data to Understand Chipotle (CMG) Earnings Beat

Consumer Edge US Transaction data was predictive of Chipotle’s (CMG) sales beat, as the fast casual Mexican chain reported +18.1% sales growth, close to CE Implied Reported Growth of +17.8% and above consensus estimates of +17%. CMG management attributed the revenue beat to a strong April and growth in all income cohorts, bucking the industry trend of a waning lower income consumer.

*Consumer Edge Credit/Debit card data, USA1+USA2 eMax Panel; Data does not include third-party delivery spend

Chipotle Reported Same Store Sales vs. CE US Transact

Comparable Sales also beat expectations, coming in at +11.1%, close to CE Implied Reported same store sales of +11.5% and above consensus of +9.1%. Comparable sales strength was driven by favorable traffic trends which were up 8.7%.

Low Income Consumer a Source of Strength

Weakness in the lower income consumer has been a key focus this year in the restaurant industry. Many quick-service players such as McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s and even some full-service operators like Chili’s have developed value menu LTOs to lure back these customers.

*Consumer Edge Credit/Debit card data, USA1+USA2 Cohort Panel; Data does not include third-party delivery spend

Despite these industry trends, CE data shows that Chipotle is not experiencing these same headwinds. Both the < $40k and $40k-60k income consumers have outperformed higher earners this year and this continued in 2024Q2.  Perhaps their signature guac and chips are really worth the splurge.

Consumer Edge is the leading provider of alternative data for consumer spending behavior, and the only provider of global revenue signals. If you’d like to benefit from using CE Transact US, CE Vision, or other products for Chipotle insights, limited-service restaurants data, and other industry data year-round to track trends and market hits like these, reach out to insights@consumer-edge.com.