As the 2025 back-to-school spending season kicks off, Consumer Edge’s U.S. credit and debit card transaction data provides a real-time look at how families are shopping—and which retailers are emerging as early winners or facing headwinds. The findings highlight key shifts in consumer behavior shaped by ongoing economic uncertainty and evolving style preferences.
Value Retailers Lead the Pack
Amid inflationary pressures and cautious consumer sentiment, value-driven retailers are capturing attention and wallet share. Brands like Aeropostale, J. Crew Factory, and Carter’s have shown notable strength. All three have managed to grow their average transaction size year-over-year—a metric that may reflect both rising prices and customers purchasing more items per trip.
Interestingly, despite the increase in spend per transaction, these retailers have maintained a favorable price gap compared to competitors. This suggests that their value proposition remains intact and compelling, even as discounting becomes less aggressive.
Assortment Appeal Drives Momentum
It’s not just low prices that matter—style and selection are playing a key role. Retailers with fresh, trend-right assortments are seeing success. Tea Collection and trend-focused brands like Hollister and PacSun are resonating with Gen Z and millennial shoppers, while Gap Inc.’s Janie and Jack and Gap have also found traction with their seasonally relevant offerings.
These wins highlight the importance of aligning product design and merchandising with current fashion and lifestyle trends, especially in a period where discretionary spend is scrutinized more closely.
Challenges for Backpacks and Premium Players
Not all segments are faring as well. The backpack category, once a perennial back-to-school staple, is showing signs of saturation. Direct-to-consumer sales for once-popular brands Kipling and Herschel Supply are facing pressure amid intensified channel competition and a crowded market landscape.
On the premium side, Maisonette, known for its curated marketplace of higher-end children’s goods, has seen a decline in sales. As value becomes a priority for many families, premium price points appear less justifiable. Similarly, Primary.com, with its focus on basics, is underperforming. The brand’s minimalistic styles are missing the mark as bold graphics, logos, and expressive fashion dominate children’s preferences this season.
Looking Ahead
These early trends underscore a broader theme: Consumers are balancing value with style, seeking affordable options without sacrificing appeal. Retailers that hit both notes—through pricing strategy and assortment relevance—are poised to win this back-to-school season.
As the season progresses, continued monitoring of consumer spend and channel shifts will be critical for brands and investors alike. Stay tuned for further insights as Consumer Edge tracks how these dynamics evolve into the fall.
