The military conflict in the Middle East that began on February 28 has led to rising prices across the energy complex, and as a result, travelers are starting to pay more to fly. Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled since the conflict began, according to IATA, representing one of the sharpest fuel cost shocks the industry has encountered in recent memory.
Airlines have responded in kind. United, JetBlue, and now Delta have all raised checked baggage fees in the weeks since the conflict began. Delta announced its first domestic baggage fee increase in two years, citing “evolving global conditions and industry dynamics.” Consumer Edge transaction data previously showed average transaction size growth accelerating across all six major U.S. carriers in the two weeks following the February 28 strikes, a uniform directional signal that a pricing shift was already underway even before the more recent fee increase announcements.
The key question now is whether demand holds up. CE data shows potential signs that travelers might have booked flights ahead of further anticipated price increases, before transaction growth moderated below pre-conflict growth rates. Because booking trends are sensitive to the timing of Easter each year, it is important to analyze each year’s transaction trends in the lead-up to Easter and the weeks following the holiday to account for holiday shifts. 2026 stands out from the past several years: it posted the highest pre-Easter peak of any year, reaching approximately 115 on the index around 3–4 weeks before Easter, but also the steepest subsequent decline, suggesting demand may have been pulled forward into a narrow window.
The addition of post-Easter data shows a relatively lackluster pickup in airline bookings following the holiday, potentially indicating softer demand amid weakening consumer sentiment and concerns around higher costs. The next few weeks will be critical to determine whether demand takes a sustained hit or is experiencing a temporary dip.
