Consumer Edge Vantage came within 0.3 points of Texas Roadhouse’s Q3 sales growth, and card data tracked moderating growth heading into Q4
Key takeaways
- Texas Roadhouse grew Q3 2026 company restaurant sales 9.6% year over year, close to Consumer Edge Vantage’s prediction of 9.3% and consensus of 10.0%.
- Management reported comparable sales growth of 1.5% for the first five weeks of Q4, consistent with the moderating growth trend in Consumer Edge data.
- In Consumer Edge transaction data, Texas Roadhouse spending growth moderated from 7.9% in Q1 2026 to 5.8% in Q2 and 3.8% in Q3.
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) reported Q3 2026 company restaurant sales growth of +9.6%, close to Consumer Edge Vantage's prediction of +9.3% and slightly below consensus of +10.0%. Shares fell approximately 4.5% in initial after-hours trading following the earnings miss and weaker early-Q4 sales trends. Management also reported a deceleration in comparable sales growth to +1.5% for the first five weeks of Q4, consistent with the slowing growth trend observed in Consumer Edge's data.
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How business leaders use this data
- Investors compare Consumer Edge Vantage predictions and card-panel trends with consensus ahead of earnings to see where expectations look too high or too low.
- Analysts track spending growth through the quarter to see where growth is heading before management reports comparable sales or updates guidance.
- Restaurant strategy teams benchmark a chain’s sales momentum against casual dining peers to see whether shifts in growth are company-specific or industry-wide.
Frequently asked questions
Texas Roadhouse reported Q3 2026 company restaurant sales growth of 9.6%, close to Consumer Edge Vantage’s prediction of 9.3% and consensus of 10.0%.
Consumer Edge Vantage predicted 9.3% company restaurant sales growth for Q3 2026, within 0.3 points of the 9.6% Texas Roadhouse reported.
Management reported comparable sales growth of 1.5% for the first five weeks of Q4, consistent with the moderating growth trend in Consumer Edge data. Consumer Edge transaction data shows Texas Roadhouse spending growth moderated from 7.9% in Q1 2026 to 5.8% in Q2 and 3.8% in Q3.
Chart data
View the data: Texas Roadhouse company restaurant sales growth
| Fiscal quarter | Reported company restaurant sales growth | Panel growth | CE Vantage prediction | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | 13.5% | 10.9% | ||
| 2024Q4 | 23.5% | 17.9% | ||
| 2025Q1 | 9.6% | 4.2% | ||
| 2025Q2 | 12.8% | 6.2% | ||
| 2025Q3 | 12.9% | 7.3% | ||
| 2025Q4 | 3.2% | −1.3% | ||
| 2026Q1 | 12.9% | 7.9% | ||
| 2026Q2 | 11.2% | 5.8% | ||
| 2026Q3 | 9.6% | 3.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% |
Notes: Chart periods are Texas Roadhouse fiscal quarters. Reported is the company’s reported year-over-year company restaurant sales growth. Panel is year-over-year spend growth in Consumer Edge U.S. credit and debit card data. CE Vantage is Consumer Edge’s predicted growth; consensus is the analyst consensus estimate.
