Gas prices crossed $4 per gallon last week for the first time in more than a month, and Brent crude briefly topped $90 as the conflict with Iran escalated. As Consumer Edge SVP of Research and Market Intelligence Michael Gunther told CNBC, brands with value-focused or driving-dependent customer bases have the most at stake.
Our transaction data shows how much. Across the fuel brands we track, the median brand’s customers put 3.33% of their total card spend toward gas in Q2 2026, up from 2.77% a year earlier. The increase was near-universal across brands.
The most exposed names skew rural and value: farm and home retail, value apparel, discount, and roadside dining. Fleet Farm customers lead at 5.6% of wallet on gas, up a full point year over year, followed by Harbor Freight (5.5%) and Tractor Supply (5.1%). The brands most at risk combine a high level of fuel exposure with a large one-year jump.
In dining, exposure concentrates in buffet, QSR burger, and roadside formats: Golden Corral (5.0%), Hardee’s (4.9%), Little Caesar’s (4.9%), and Waffle House (4.8%) top the list.
In retail, Boot Barn (5.0%), Bass Pro Shops (4.9%), and Dollar General (4.7%) carry the heaviest exposure.
High exposure is not automatically bad news. Warehouse club customers rank among the most fuel-exposed, but clubs sell gas: Costco reported record gas volumes at the end of its fiscal third quarter, and clubs could win share as drivers hunt for value.
“Consumers are paying attention,” Gunther said. “And they are shifting their habits to manage their wallet.”
Notes: Gas share of wallet is each brand cohort’s spend at tracked fuel brands divided by the cohort’s total card spend in the period. A brand’s cohort is cardholders who transacted with that brand in the period. Q2 2026 reflects April 1 through June 26. Source: Consumer Edge US credit and debit card data.
