Everything pointed to a BNPL surge. It didn’t come. Here’s what did.

The conditions were in place for a BNPL surge in Q2: soft consumer confidence, persistent inflation worries, and gas prices climbing through the spring. Adoption stayed on trend instead. Consumer Edge card data shows BNPL penetration reached 15.0% of active cardholders, near record highs, with the year-over-year gain of 1.23pp just off Q1’s 1.27pp pace. This report breaks down where the acceleration actually came from: families and the lowest earners.

The report draws on Consumer Edge US credit and debit card data, measuring the share of active cardholders transacting with point-of-sale lending providers each quarter, from national trends down to the state level.

What’s inside

• Households with children: penetration of ~19% vs. ~12.5% for households without kids, and the YoY gain accelerated while most groups steadied.
• Income: the under-$40K tier was the only band to accelerate vs. Q1, with its YoY gain rising to 1.3pp; the $150K+ tier stayed the outlier at 13% penetration and 0.9pp.
• Age: penetration runs from ~21.5% for the 25-34 cohort to ~7.0% for 65+, with the sharpest deceleration among older millennials.
• Renters vs. homeowners: ~23% vs. ~13% penetration, the widest single gap CE tracks, with renters slowing from 1.8pp+ in Q1 to ~1.5pp.
• Geography: the South and Sunbelt lead on level and momentum, with Texas at 18.6% and +1.44pp; the upper Midwest lags, with Minnesota at 8.5% and +0.77pp.
• Cross-shop: the share of BNPL users transacting with just one provider fell to 56.5%, from about 66% in 2021.