RH is tracking +1.1%, back from the Q1 trough. Here’s the read.

RH’s Q1 2026 marked its first negative revenue quarter since early 2024. The question for Q2 is whether the rebound management promised is showing up in real consumer spending. CE’s transaction data says it is: the CE Analyst Estimate tracks RH at +1.1% year over year through 45 of 91 days of Q2, inside management’s guide of +0.5% to +2.5% and a clear turn from Q1’s reported -1.7%.

This sample report is one issue of Research Signal, CE’s ticker-level research series. It shows how CE reads a high-ticket, low-frequency name like RH: what the card panel captures, what it structurally misses, and why the directional signal has called the inflections anyway.

What’s Inside

• Q2 2026 forecast vs. consensus: CE’s +1.1% read alongside consensus at +1.7%, with 45 of 91 days of the quarter captured
• Monthly spend trend: the deterioration from December to the April trough (-18.1% YoY) and the May improvement (-3.9%) that aligns with management’s trough framing
• Competitive trends: RH against Williams-Sonoma, West Elm, Pottery Barn, Arhaus, Crate & Barrel, and Frontgate, where the data suggests share loss rather than uniform category weakness
• Channel and drivers: online at 75.3% of trailing 12-month spend, plus the transaction and ticket trends behind the rebound
• A published accuracy record: the full quarterly backtest, including where CE’s estimate ran below reported and the structural reasons why
• Risks and considerations: RH’s financing, trade, and international revenue sit outside the card panel; the report tells you before you rely on the data