ASO is tracking +1.3%, 2pp below the Street. Here’s why.

Academy Sports is the tightest accuracy story in our consumer coverage. Our last quarterly estimate landed within 0.1pp of reported, +6.8% against +6.7%, and we have been within 1pp of reported Net Sales every quarter since Q2 2024. Underlying panel R² is 0.97, directionally correct every quarter.

That track record is what makes the Q2 read worth attention. CE is tracking +1.3% against consensus of +3.3%, a deceleration forming off a strong Q1. This sample report is the full read behind that number, in the same format we publish across all 77 tickers we cover.

What’s Inside

• The Q2 gap: CE’s read of +1.3% against consensus of +3.3%, and the deceleration forming off a strong Q1.
• Ticket-led, traffic-soft: 13 straight months of positive ticket YoY set against falling transactions.
• Share trend: gains to 25.9% while Big 5, Cabela’s, and Sportsman’s Warehouse keep losing ground.