Research Signal · General Merchandise · AMZN · Q2 2026 Preliminary

Amazon is tracking +11.1%, 2.5pp below the Street. Here’s why.

CE has landed within 2.4pp of reported every quarter since Q2 2024. This is the read behind the number.

Get the Amazon sample report

Consensus has Amazon’s Q2 North American Net Sales growing roughly 2.5pp faster than what the transaction data shows. The gap traces almost entirely to the June Prime Day shift, a distortion that isn’t in the Street’s comparison yet. CE’s calibrated estimate has landed within 2.4pp of Amazon’s reported number every quarter since Q2 2024.

This sample report is one issue of Research Signal, CE’s ticker-level estimate series covering 17 General Merchandise names, published up to three times per quarter: mid-quarter, full-quarter, and post-earnings. Request it to judge the structure, the accuracy, and the commentary for yourself.

What’s Inside

CE’s Q2 estimate vs. consensus: where the read sits against the Street, and why the June Prime Day shift distorts the comparison
The transaction-vs-ticket split driving growth: seven straight months of ticket compression
Demographic and competitive signal: including 18-24 outperformance and the narrowing warehouse-club gap

In a grocery market defined by format bifurcation and shifting loyalty, the brands gaining share are those with format clarity, private-label depth, and a value proposition that resonates across every income cohort.