Consumer Edge UK Transaction Data Key Takeaways:
- Home Bargains is outperforming the sector. While combined spend across all three retailers fell year-on-year in 2024–25, Home Bargains grew spend, making it the clear winner in the variety discount space.
- B&M’s “Back to Basics” strategy is yet to bear fruit. B&M cut its FY2026 profit outlook in January, with the CEO attributing it to an inventory reset. Both CE transaction counts and average panel ticket price have fallen Y/Y over the last several months.
- Poundland’s lost shoppers are difficult to capture. The penetration gains by B&M and Home Bargains do not make up for those lost by Poundland. Poundland’s steepest losses come from under-45s, who may be migrating to online discount platforms rather than physical rivals.
Despite a cost-of-living crisis, low-cost retailers like B&M and Poundland have struggled over the last two years. Poundland was sold in June 2025 for a nominal £1 as part of a turnaround plan that will see over 100 locations closed. B&M, meanwhile, is pursuing its own recovery under a “Back to Basics” strategy, which centers on simplifying its product range and lowering prices. It has opened new stores in the last two years, albeit at a slower pace than its closest rival, Home Bargains. With Poundland retreating, the key question is: who is capturing that displaced spend?
Home Bargains consistently emerges as the clear winner in the variety discount space. Total combined spend at the three stores is down low single digits Y/Y from 2024 to 2025, while Home Bargains is slightly up.
In January, B&M cut its profit outlook for FY 2026. CEO Tjeerd Jegen attributes the lowered guidance to a Back to Basics inventory reset. They are cutting prices to clear inventory on discontinued lines and clean up stock, aiming for future growth.
In the CE UK transaction data, B&M historically has had a higher average ticket price, however the gap is diminishing. In January 2022, B&M’s average ticket was £2.46 higher than Home Bargains (£19.68 vs £17.22). By January 2026, that difference is essentially gone (£19.17 vs £19.12). Home Bargains’ ticket price rose 12% over the period while B&M’s fell 2%, reflecting their stated price cuts.
Home Bargains’ strength comes from a higher volume of smaller transactions. The lower ticket price could be driven by the increasing number of in-store cafes. At a time when other retailers are pulling back from in-store cafes, notably Morrison’s, Home Bargains is growing their presence and committed to adding a café to all new stores. Consumers appear to be responding positively, with transaction growth remaining consistently positive.
The steepest declines in Poundland’s customer base come from younger age groups (under 45). B&M and Home Bargains could be competing with online discount retailers like Temu and the Tiktok shop to pick up that spend. B&M and Home Bargains have increased their total penetration about 1% each from 2023 to 2026, with the gain spread equally among age groups. Overall, Poundland lost over 15% of its individual shoppers from 2022 to 2026. Shopper gains for B&M and Home Bargains account for less than half that and the decline in combined spend accelerated in the second half of 2025.
