Market Hit: Consumer Edge data accurately predicts Macy’s revenue decline and shopping trends by age demographics

Following Macy’s total sales decline, management cited strategies for boosting growth. Two major challenges that Macy’s and other department stores face are inflation squeezing wallets and an aging customer base. Consumer Edge data shows that the majority of Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s customers are currently above the age of 45, though new customer growth among the under 35 cohort this year shows promise. 

Macy’s Sales Decline Mirrors CE Implied Growth

Department store Macy’s Inc (M) recently reported a total sales decline of -2.7%, very close to CE Implied Reported Growth of -2.8% and above consensus of -3.2%. 

Department Stores Seeking Fountain Of Youth

Macy’s (M), like other full-price department stores, faces two major challenges as it looks to rebound: inflation squeezing wallets and an aging customer base. CE data shows that over the last year more than half of Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s customers were above the age of 45.  In contrast, Nordstrom (JWN) had more than half of its customers coming from shoppers below 45, perhaps due to its strategy of signing trendy brands such as Skims and Princess Polly. 

Shifting to new customers, defined as customers who didn’t make any purchases at the store in 2023, Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s each have about 30% of new shoppers coming from shoppers below 35. This represents a higher portion of younger shoppers relative to its existing customer base and is higher than competitors except for Kohl’s and Nordstrom. This could be a sign that shuttering under-performing stores in favor of small-format off-mall Macy’s stores and focusing on private brands is working in attracting younger shoppers. As Macy’s continues to build on this strategy, clients can utilize CE cohort tools to monitor M’s growth among different age demographics in real time.

Consumer Edge is the leading provider of alternative data for consumer spending behavior, and the only provider of global revenue signals. If you’d like to benefit from using CE Transact US, CE Vision, or other products for department stores insights, market intelligence, and other industry data year-round to track trends and market hits like these, reach out to request a demo.

About the Authors

Michael Gunther is the VP Head of Insights for the CEIC. Explore more of his insights here and follow him on LinkedIn.

Harsh Masher is an Insights Analyst for the CEIC.