Escalating tensions in the Middle East over the weekend — including U.S./Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s response — have renewed focus on potential disruption to global oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Markets remain sensitive to escalation risk, and any meaningful disruption could drive crude and gasoline price volatility.
Higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers — but the impact is not uniform. Lower-income households allocate a higher share of total spending to fuel, and consumers in suburban and rural markets are more car-dependent, leaving them more exposed to price spikes. Consumer Edge U.S. credit and debit card data offers a direct way to assess which companies could be more exposed to gasoline price increases. Through share-of-wallet analysis across medium-to-large brands, we quantify how much of each brand’s customer spending is allocated to fuel, highlighting those with potentially higher sensitivity to a gas price spike.
Key takeaways:
- Apparel & Footwear: value and rural-skewed brands rank highest.
Boot Barn and Cavender’s lead in gas spending exposure, followed by ShopWSS, Plato’s Closet, Savers, Goodwill, Shoe Dept., and Shoe Carnival — consistent with more suburban/rural and lower-to-middle income customer profiles. - Beauty: value and service-oriented concepts show higher exposure.
Great Clips, Sally Beauty Supply, Amway, and Sport Clips rank above specialty beauty retailers like Ulta, reflecting differences in income mix and geographic footprint. - Department & Off-Price: value retail trends toward the top.
Curacao, dd’s Discounts, Burlington, and Ross skew higher in gas wallet allocation, again aligning with income and trade-area dynamics. - Discount / Club: warehouse and dollar formats exhibit elevated fuel share.
Sam’s Club and Dollar General rank at the top, with Costco, Walmart, and Dollar Tree also relatively elevated — reflecting drive-to shopping behavior and suburban penetration. - Restaurants (Full-Service & Limited-Service): drive-dependent dining concepts rank highest.
In Full-Service, Peter Piper Pizza, Golden Corral, and Waffle House sit near the top. In Limited-Service, Jack in the Box, In-N-Out Burger, Little Caesars, and Carl’s Jr. show elevated gas spend share among customers. Concepts reliant on car-based access may see greater pressure on visit frequency if fuel prices spike.
