Consumer Edge’s Phoenix pharmacy claims and Hydrus medical claims datasets provide visibility into volume trends for a broad universe of therapeutics and procedures. The accuracy and real-time nature of these datasets support quarterly revenue projections, which CE positions relative to Visible Alpha consensus metrics. Phoenix pharmacy is our best-in-class closed claims dataset, differentiated by its longitudinal integrity and capture of specialty pharmacy products commonly blocked in other data sources. The Hydrus open medical claims dataset offers the lowest latency medical claims signal on the market, differentiated by its breadth and representativeness. 

With 4Q2025 earnings coming to a close, we’ve recapped how we used Phoenix pharmacy and Hydrus medical claims data to form revenue projections ahead of company reports for a select group of products, along with key learnings and relevant signals derived from the data. 

Phoenix Pharmacy 

Crenessity (NBIX) – Phoenix Pharmacy
  • CE Phoenix pharmacy data accurately pointed to directional strength for Crenessity Net Product Revenue. NBIX printed $135.3 M in 4Q2025 net product sales, representing 38% QoQ growth, strong versus consensus of 25% QoQ growth.
  • A significant proportion of patients who have initiated Crenessity have remained active on therapy, with 80 – 85% of cumulative patients volumes remaining active throughout 4Q2025. Management has cited similarly high rates of retention observed in patients in the open-label extension study, with 80% of patients remaining on therapy 2 years post initiation.
Brinsupri (INSM) – Phoenix Pharmacy
  • CE Phoenix pharmacy data correctly signaled clear directional strength in Brinsupri growth in 4Q2025. INSM reported 415% QoQ Brinsupri Net Product Revenue growth, significantly above Visible Alpha consensus of 148% QoQ. 
  • New patient starts accelerated throughout 3Q2025 and remained robust throughout 4Q2025, driving strong performance. INSM reported that 9,000 new patients started Brinsupri in 4Q2025, more than tripling new patient starts observed in 3Q2025  
Tyvaso Franchise (UTHR) – Phoenix Pharmacy
  • UTHR printed 12% YoY growth for Total Tyvaso U.S. Net Product Sales for 4Q2025, weak versus Visible Alpha consensus of 17% YoY. Consumer Edge Phoenix pharmacy data showed weakness in franchise growth due to a more significant decline in nebulized Tyvaso utilization. Nebulized Tyvaso growth was specifically -13% YoY growth, significantly weak vs. visible alpha consensus of 4% growth.
  • Phoenix data captures the shift from nebulized Tyvaso to Tyvaso DPI that has taken place since Tyvaso DPI’s launch in 2022, in addition to competitive shifts. Robust uptake of Yutrepia, Liquidia’s newly launched DPI option, is observed in recent quarters.

Hydrus Medical 

Inspire Sleep Apnea System (INSP) – Hydrus Medical
  • INSP reported 11% YoY growth for U.S. Revenues in 4Q2025, slightly above Visible Alpha consensus of 9% YoY and at the midpoint of the Consumer Edge predicted growth range of 8% to 14% YoY growth. Consumer Edge Hydrus data has successfully tracked INSP’s U.S. growth trajectory through multiple product launches (e.g., Inspire V launched at the beginning of 2025).
Watchman (BSX) – Hydrus Medical
  • BSX reported 29% YoY growth for Watchman U.S. Revenue, weak versus Visible Alpha consensus of 32% and near the midpoint of the Consumer Edge predicted growth range of 27% to 33% YoY growth. 
  • The 4Q2025 result represents a slowdown in growth relative to last quarter, coinciding with a significant 17% dip in BSX stock that was partly driven by additional weakness in BSX’s Farapulse device and modest 2026 guidance expectations.  

Additional Correctly Forecasted Names

ProductDatasetConsensusCE EstimateReportedDirectional Result
Vyndaqel/Vyndamax (PFE)Phoenix Rx3% YoY-7% to 0% YoY-7% YoYMiss
Orladeyo (BCRX)Phoenix Rx34% YoY36% to 42% YoY34% YoYBeat
Zio Monitor (IRTC)Hydrus Mx26% YoY22% to 28% YoY27% YoYIn-line
Ultomiris (AZN)Hydrus Mx13% YoY6% to 14% YoY12% YoYIn-line
Hip Arthroplasty (SYK/ZBH)*Hydrus Mx7% YoY5% to 9% YoY5% YoYIn-line
Knee Arthroplasty (SYK/ZBH)*Hydrus Mx5% YoY3% to 7% YoY7% YoYIn-line

*Note: Consumer Edge tracks volumes across Stryker and Zimmer on a combined basis, as the claims billing codes used for this procedure are not manufacturer-specific.

Grace Carlson

is Associate Director at Consumer Edge.

Julia Fitzgerald

is the VP of Healthcare Products at Consumer Edge. Explore more of her insights here.

< >
Share via