QSR: McDonald's Beverage Push Threatens Coffee Competitors

McDonald’s (MCD) plans to expand its beverage offerings nationwide later this year, introducing Refreshers and crafted sodas including the Red Bull Dragonberry Energizer, Dirty Dr. Pepper, and Mango Pineapple Refresher. McDonald’s previously tested similar drinks through its CosMc’s concept, which launched in December 2023 and closed all locations by June 2025. It now intends to price these offerings below competitors like Starbucks (SBUX), Dutch Bros. Coffee (BROS), and Sonic Drive-In, as competition intensifies with Taco Bell (YUM) and Starbucks also recently introducing comparable offerings.

Consumer Edge U.S. credit and debit card data shows that McDonald’s has the highest customer overlap with Starbucks and Taco Bell at 58% and 55%, respectively. Over the past two years, overlap across comparable brands has been roughly flat to slightly down. In contrast, newer brands like Dutch Bros. and 7 Brew have posted the largest gains, increasing overlap by 3% and 4% on a trailing 12-month basis over the same period.

Dutch Bros., Taco Bell, and Sonic show the closest alignment with McDonald’s by income mix, with the $40-100k cohort driving a similar share of sales at McDonald’s (32%), compared to Dutch Bros. (33%), Taco Bell (32%), and Sonic (35%). In contrast, Starbucks and Dunkin’ skew toward higher-income consumers, with the $150k+ cohort accounting for 29% and 25% of sales, respectively, versus 21% at McDonald’s.

By age, McDonald’s most closely aligns with Sonic, Dunkin’, and Starbucks, with ages 35-44 representing its largest segment at McDonald’s (22%), compared to Sonic (23%), Dunkin’ (24%), and Starbucks (24%). The next largest sales cohort, ages 45-54, accounts for 18% of spend at both McDonald’s and Starbucks and 19% at Sonic and Dunkin’. In contrast, 7 Brew and Dutch Bros. skew younger, with ages 18-34 comprising 31% and 30% of spend, respectively; the 55+ cohort represents 16% at both chains versus 24% at McDonald’s.