Market Hit: CE Vantage Accurately Forecasts LULU’s Q2 Global Sales Miss Due to Weakness in Young Shoppers

CE’s newly refined Vantage – Forecast tool accurately captured the miss in LULU reported revenue, relative to guidance, for Q2 ‘24. Improvements to the Vantage – Forecast tool incorporate dynamic tracking of recent company performance and blending of CE datasets to forecast out current-period reported KPIs in real time.

LULU’s Sales Growth YoY

CE’s Global Transaction data was predictive of LuluLemon (LULU) Total Sales, as the athletic apparel company reported total sales growth of +7.3%, close to CE Vantage forecast of +7% and below consensus estimates of +9.1%.

Young Shoppers Sour on LULU

Although much of Lululemon’s Q2 commentary focused on womenswear, they also mentioned efforts to attract young shoppers. CE’s Cohort data offers insight into why this may be a challenge. While younger shoppers still make up most of the brand’s base, Gen Z (18-24) and younger Millennials (25-34) have shown declining affinity for Lululemon over the past two years.

CE Cohort Panel
Quarters are based off of a January-end fiscal year.
*Defined as specified shopper’s likeliness to transact at indicated merchant, relative to all shopper’s likeliness to transact at indicated merchant.

In Q2 ’22, Gen Z shoppers were over 2x more likely to shop at Lululemon compared to all shoppers in CE’s Cohort Panel. By Q2 ’24, this dropped to 1.8x. Younger Millennials, once 1.4x more likely to shop at Lululemon, have seen their rate fall below 1.2x in recent quarters. Given this slow decline in Lululemon’s core demographic, their strategy to refocus on young shopper acquisition seems timely.

Consumer Edge is the leading provider of alternative data for consumer spending and the sole source of global revenue signals. To gain insights into apparel, accessories, and footwear, market intelligence, and trends, request a demo of CE products.

About the Authors

Michael Gunther is the VP Head of Insights for the CEIC. Explore more of his insights here and follow him on LinkedIn.

Alex Breslin-Johnson is a Senior Insights Analyst for the CEIC. Follow him on LinkedIn.

< >
Share via