Moonpig’s future keeps seeming brighter and brighter, with the company raising guidance as each new holiday generates an even bigger than expected sales boost.  But do the service’s online cards and gifts have staying power, or was the company simply in the right place at the right time?  In today’s Insight Flash, we answer that question by digging into how the company has performed versus the broader Party/Novelty/Gifts Subindustry, how frequently customers come back for additional occasions, and whether customer geography plays a role in purchases. saw a large surge in UK transaction growth at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, as quarantined shoppers looked for digital ways to reach out to friends and family.  However, much of this growth has been following sectoral trends for online Party/Novelty/Gifts and is therefore hard to attribute to specifics of Moonpig’s business model or assortment.  Although transaction growth outpaced the online subindustry in March, April, and May of 2020, the broader online subindustry has outperformed since then. 

Transaction Growth

For an occasion-based business like Moonpig, bringing customers back is a key lever for growth.  Our data shows that over time, new Moonpig shoppers have been less and less likely to return.  Only 14% of those who first bought something from Moonpig in Valentine’s Day/Mother’s Day 1Q2021 returned in 4Q2022, well below 23% of those who first shopped in that quarter in 2018.  With each new shopper cohort becoming less valuable, this may suggest limitations to Moonpig’s growth over time.

Customer Loyalty

Note:  Among those who first shopped in quarter listed in legend, percent shopping in subsequent quarters

There are differences in card and gift purchasing in different parts of the UK.  For instance, in the last year people living in Northern Ireland were some of the most active gift givers, 1.6 times as likely as the overall panel to make a transaction at and 1.3 times as likely to purchase from Etsy.  The Welsh were most likely to make their cards, gifts, and other items with crafts from The Works, while the English preferred Clintons Card Shops and the Scottish went the personalization route with Getting Personal.

Geo Exposure

Note:  364 days ending 3/27/22