Consumer Edge US credit and debit card data focused on Black Friday Cyber Monday retail trends 2025 shows that the K-shaped economy was on full display during the critical Black Friday–Cyber Monday shopping window, mirroring the divergence seen in the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving. Shoppers in the <$40k income group continued to pull back, with spending down -2% compared to 2024 after a muted start to the holiday season. Higher-income households ($150k+) told a different story—spending rose nearly +3%, marking a solid acceleration from the early holiday period as sentiment among those consumers remains supported by rising asset prices. Middle-income shoppers fell somewhere in between: the $40k–$100k group spent roughly in line with last year after a +1% lift pre-BFCM, while the $100k–$150k cohort increased spend by over +1.5%.
These patterns reinforce how uneven economic conditions are shaping holiday purchasing behavior. As these income-driven spending patterns played out, they created clear divides across retail categories, shaping which segments saw momentum and which faced headwinds. Taken together, the clear splits emerging across income groups and retail categories already provide important context for how the rest of the holiday season—and even early 2026—may unfold, while the coming weeks will offer further signals on the durability of consumer demand.
Source: Consumer Edge Vela Gamma credit and debit card data. Based on spending across major retail merchant category codes. Pre-Thanksgiving holiday shopping period encompasses the 21 days prior to Thanksgiving in each given year.
Contrasting Category Momentum During BFCM
value-seeking consumers, selective discretionary spending, and category-specific rebounds. Across the winners, a consistent theme emerged: shoppers gravitated toward affordability, versatility, and convenience, fueling strong results for off-price retailers, discount chains, and online marketplaces. Even challenged segments like Footwear and Active & Athleisure saw renewed momentum as consumers responded to holiday deals and product assortments. These dynamics underscore how even high-income consumers have changed their spending habits in 2025-marking a reallocation of priorities to get the best value for their dollar.
Meanwhile, the underperforming categories reflected the other side of the value equation. Retailers in higher-priced, more discretionary categories continued to feel the strain as consumers questioned premium positioning and traded down to alternative channels. Plus Size apparel also faced intensifying competitive pressures and shifting demand dynamics, while luxury merchants and high-end department stores struggled to justify their elevated price points in an increasingly cost-conscious environment. Together, the trends underscore a holiday season shaped by price sensitivity, strategic deal-hunting, and a willingness to shift spending toward brands and channels offering the strongest perceived value.
Notable Areas of Strength
Consumer Edge data showed that:
- General cosmetics rose +4%, with retailers like Ulta and Sephora contributing to the category’s growth. Strength may reflect resilient beauty demand—often linked to the “lipstick effect”—as well as potential lift from promotional rotations and gifting-oriented shopping during the BFCM period.
- Off-Price Department Stores maintained strong momentum as shoppers across income levels seek affordable wardrobe options, with Ross Stores, Burlington Stores, Marshalls, and T.J. Maxx all contributing to the category’s robust growth. Sales rose +6% during Black Friday-Cyber Monday after +5% growth in the pre-Thanksgiving period.
- Discount & Dollar Stores also benefitted from this dynamic, as sales rose +3% following a strong +7% start to the holiday shopping season, boosted by retailers including Dollar Tree, Dollar General, and Five Below.
- Footwear posted positive results for Black Friday-Cyber Monday (+4%), following weak performance throughout the year and a soft start to the holiday season (-7%). The rebound could indicate that consumers were waiting for big deals before making their holiday footwear purchases, or it might point to an inflection point for the space heading into 2026. The coming weeks will provide additional clues about which explanation the data supports. The strength wasn’t limited to a particular category or price point, as brands including Boot Barn, Ugg, Foot Locker, and Skechers all contributed to the notable performance.
- Similarly, the Active & Athleisure category performed well over BFCM (+3%) after experiencing relative weakness throughout the year and in the early holiday shopping period (-3%), as gains from brands like Alo Yoga, Vuori, Fabletics, On Running, and Athleta overcame mixed performance from some larger legacy players.
- Fashion Resale performed well (+4%), driven by brands like Goodwill, Depop, The RealReal, Savers, and Poshmark as consumers continued to lean into affordability amid macroeconomic volatility and stretched budgets. However, this growth was lower than the +8% seen in the pre-Thanksgiving period, perhaps as shoppers turned to other categories for gifting.
- Specialty Apparel posted solid growth over the Black Friday-Cyber Monday period (+4%), bouncing back after a soft start to the holiday shopping season (-6%), boosted by strength in brands like FIGS, Edikted, and Ariat.
- Online marketplaces grew sales by +6%, with Amazon, eBay, and TikTok Shop benefitting as shoppers continue to favor convenience and availability of a wide variety of brands and products.
- General cosmetics rose +4%, with retailers like Ulta and Sephora contributing to the category’s growth. Strength may reflect resilient beauty demand—often linked to the “lipstick effect”—as well as potential lift from promotional rotations and gifting-oriented shopping during the BFCM period.
Black Friday Cyber Monday Retail Trends 2025: Notable Areas of Weakness
Consumer Edge data showed that:
- Plus Size apparel retailers continued to face pressures amid competition from other merchants expanding their plus size offerings and as demand falters with increased GLP-1 usage. Sales declined -17%, continuing the weakness seen during the early holiday shopping period (-14%), with brands like Torrid and Lane Bryant in the negative column.
- High-End Department Stores underperformed (-10%), following a weak start to the season (-7%), as consumers become more choiceful in how they spend money, and as they question the value of high-priced luxury goods. Retailers like Nordstrom, Neiman Marcus, and Saks Fifth Avenue continue to lag their off-price peers.
- Luxury Apparel reflected similar woes, declining -5% as brands like Louis Vuitton remained under pressure.
- Luggage and Bags fell -6% amid competition from broadline retailers following a soft start to the holiday season (-5%), as relative strength in Away and Tumi couldn’t offset weakness from brands like BEIS and Monos.
mortar) only – wholesale sales not attributed to individual brands. Pre-Thanksgiving holiday shopping period encompasses the 21 days prior to Thanksgiving in each given year.
Big Lots excluded from Discount & Dollar Stores calculation.
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