Last week, the Consumer Edge CPG Pricing Index — powered by Basketview purchase data — showed an acceleration in food inflation trends and pricing momentum heading into the holiday season. At that time, the food-only index had climbed to +3.2% year-over-year for the 4 weeks ended October 26th, its strongest pace of 2025. With data through November 2nd, increases moderated slightly to +3.1%, still close to the highs of the year.
The chart below expands the analysis, pairing the Food Pricing Index (blue line) with a new measure that captures the breadth of price increases across food categories — shown by the green bars.
Not Just a Few Categories Driving It
While the Food Pricing Index reflects overall pricing levels, the bars tell an important complementary story: the share of food categories experiencing year-over-year price increases of +3% or more. That percentage climbed steadily throughout the year, reaching half of all food categories by late October after remaining below 40% for much 2025. These trends indicate that the pricing pressure is not because only a small handful of volatile categories are pushing prices higher — the increase has become more broad-based.
Why It Matters
This broadening of inflationary pressure suggests that food inflation has become more entrenched than headline averages alone might imply. Even as overall CPG inflation remains well below the peaks of 2022, widening category participation points to continued strain on household budgets.
Basketview’s near-real-time coverage — spanning convenience, grocery, online, and big box channels — reinforces this trend, showing that food price growth has not only firmed but spread. That dynamic will be particularly important to watch as consumers head into the holiday season.
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