Easter 2026: Baking Under Pressure

With the consumer under well-documented pressure due to the combination of persistent inflation and now rising gas prices, we leverage the daily granularity and low latency of Consumer Edge Basketview data through April 5th to better track and understand Easter consumer shopping patterns. Trends for our custom Easter index (composed of categories such as chocolate, candy, butter, mayonnaise, and various cooking & baking ingredients) were significantly pressured on a year over year basis with cumulative spend and volume for the two weeks leading up to the holiday -7% and -11%.

Leveraging Consumer Edge Basketview data through April 5th, we see that while the cadence of consumer purchasing around the holiday has followed a similar pattern as prior years, cumulative volumes purchased in the two weeks leading up to Easter were -11% vs the same period in 2025 and also -11% vs 2024 with the Saturday before Easter (historically the largest pre-Easter shopping day) down a more modest 9% vs the same period in 2025 and down 10% vs 2024. While multiple media reports have indicated strong Easter spend, it is important to note that the data presented here is inclusive of only Easter-indexed CPG spend and excludes categories such as apparel, travel, dining out, decorations, etc. The soft Easter takeaway is further evidence of a stretched consumer navigating a challenging landscape.