Coming in Hot: Tracking the Rapid Rise of Dave’s Hot Chicken

Insight Flash: Consumer Edge Data Evaluates Dave’s Hot Chicken Market Share Gains Against Top Chicken Competitors

US chicken restaurant Dave’s Hot Chicken is hitting headlines after a remarkable 8-year growth journey culminated in the chain’s acquisition by Subway owner Roark Capital at a $1 billion valuation last week. Founded in LA in 2017, the Nashville-style hot chicken brand has since expanded to over 300 locations worldwide – with its rapid success driven by its simple menu, unique ambiance, and range of spice levels catering to even the most daring heat-seekers.

Using Consumer Edge US Transaction data, we track the brand’s market share gains against top quick-service chicken competitors over the past five years and evaluate customer loyalty trends that could signal both challenges and opportunities for its new owner.

Key Findings

Rapid share gains : Dave’s Hot Chicken took about 1.4% of overall quick-service chicken restaurant spend in CE’s US data over the past twelve months, up from just 0.1% share in 2020-21 – putting it just ahead of Church’s Chicken but still behind Bojangles and El Pollo Loco – indicating that ample runway remains for Roark to drive brand adoption in the years ahead.
Low customer retention: Dave’s Hot Chicken customers demonstrated the lowest repeat-shopper percentages among all the top chicken chains in CE’s data – with repeat purchase percentages falling to ~12% within 5 quarters of a customer’s first visit. This may represent an opportunity for the brand’s new owner to spur growth by improving re-engagement.

Market Share Data Illustrates Dave’s Rapid Ascent

CE’s US transaction data – which includes enables users to track sales for thousands of individual merchants across the United States – provides a window into how quickly Dave’s has carved out a presence in the fast-growing and hyper-competitive quick-service chicken space. Looking at Dave’s Hot Chicken spend alongside CE’s Quick Service – Chicken subindustry (which includes national chains such as Chick-Fil-A, Popeye’s, and KFC, as well as dozens of smaller regional players), we found that:

Overall Quick Service Chicken restaurant spend has grown by 33% in total over the past four years, while Dave’s Hot Chicken’s spend grew by 15x over the same time period – bringing its market share of total quick-service chicken spend from just 0.1% in the the 12 months to June 2021 to 1.4% over the past year. The brand’s explosive share gains were driven in large part by a massive increase in its store footprint, which rose from 7 locations at the beginning of 2021 to over 300 at present.
Despite its impressive growth, Dave’s is still a relatively small player in the market, ranking just ahead of Church’s Chicken but well behind El Pollo Loco and Bojangles in terms of overall share.
Dave’s share gains may have come partly at the expense of mature chains like KFC and Popeye’s, who have underperformed category growth as Dave’s and other challengers like Raising Cane’s (+4pp mkt share) and Wingstop (+1pp mkt share) gain ground.

Cohort Data Indicates Room for Growth on the Retention Front

Consumer Edge cohort data allows users to segment brands’ customer bases into shopper segments based on their first interaction with a brand and track them over time to analyze repeat purchase behavior. An analysis of shopper retention of the 2022Q3 – 2023Q4 shopper cohorts for Dave’s and other top quick-service chicken brands showed that:

Dave’s shopper repeat purchase frequency is notably lower than that of every major competitor, with the percentage of a cohort visiting Dave’s again 5 quarters after their initial visit standing at just ~12% – well shy of the average of 19% and significantly lower than chains with very loyal customer bases like Chick-Fil-A (30%) and Raising Cane’s (23%).
This low repeat-purchase percentage may be a function of lower geographic coverage (many first-time shoppers could be infrequent visitors to areas where Dave’s stores are located), limited novelty-driven appeal (e.g. customers trying Dave’s hottest spice options once) or a relatively higher price point vs. competitors – regardless, it offers an opportunity for Roark to boost sales by improving re-engagement.

Note: customer retention calculated as average percentage of initial period individuals returning to make a purchase in subsequent periods; includes individuals making first purchase in 2022Q3 through 2023Q4.

Dave’s Hot Chicken has swiftly transformed from a modest LA food stand into a rising star in the competitive quick-service chicken landscape, achieving 15x spend growth in just four years and claiming 1.4% market share. While its expansion trajectory reflects remarkable momentum and validates Roark Capital’s $1 billion acquisition bet, the brand now faces the challenge of deepening customer loyalty in order to sustain long-term growth. With industry leaders like Chick-Fil-A and Raising Cane’s demonstrating far stronger repeat-purchase rates, Roark’s opportunity lies not only in scaling store count, but also in fostering brand stickiness through pricing strategy, geographic expansion, and refined customer engagement. Dave’s has captured consumer attention—whether it can convert that into lasting retention will define the next phase of its growth story.

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