Chipotle's Q1 Hiccup Sweetened by Hot Honey Success

Market Hit: Consumer Edge Data Reflects Chipotle’s (CMG) Revenue Setback

Chipotle (CMG) served up disappointing 2025 Q1 results, and Consumer Edge US Transaction data reflected the miss. The fast-casual giant reported a +6% year-over-year sales increase, in line with CE’s Implied Reported Growth of +6.8%, but short of consensus forecasts of +8.8%.

Management attributed the miss to jittery consumers who started pulling back spending in February, a trend that has persisted. Despite the softness, Chipotle’s new hot honey chicken LTO is outpacing last year’s chicken al pastor and was a sweet spot in an otherwise underwhelming quarter.

*Consumer Edge Credit/Debit card data, USA1+USA2 eMax Panel; Data does not include third-party delivery spend

Chipotle Reported SSS vs. CE US Transact

Comparable Sales also missed expectations, coming in at -.4%, close to CE Implied Reported same store sales of -.6% and below consensus of +1.7%. Comparable sales weakness was driven by unfavorable traffic trends which fell -2.3%, blamed on poor weather and a weakening consumer environment. Results were offset by a favorable average check which was up 1.9%.

Broad-based weakness across all income cohorts and geographies

Management cited that weakness was present across all incomes and geographies. The company’s recent customer study revealed that its consumers are saving money and eating at home more due to the looming economic uncertainty.

*Consumer Edge Credit/Debit card data, USA1+USA2 Cohort Panel; Data does not include third-party delivery spend

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