Food affordability has become a critical economic and political issue as inflation has driven up grocery costs, forcing households to make difficult tradeoffs while actively seeking value. Rising prices have reshaped consumer behavior across all income levels, making the grocery sector a flashpoint for broader concerns about cost of living pressures. Consumer Edge transaction data shows discount grocers’ (eg: Aldi, Lidl, Food 4 Less, Grocery Outlet) share of the overall grocery market rose from 7.0% at the end of 2021 to over 8.0% as of October 2025. However, discount grocer share has plateaued since mid-April 2025, potentially reflecting easing food price pressures – seasonally adjusted CPI for food-at-home has averaged 0.3% month-over-month growth during this period. This stabilization also coincides with traditional grocers doubling down on value-focused strategies, emphasizing private label offerings and simplified promotions to compete for price-conscious shoppers.
From early 2023 through mid-2024, households earning under $40,000 annually drove discount grocer share growth as price-sensitive consumers felt the greatest impact of rising food costs. Starting in Q2 2024, however, middle-income households earning between $40,000-$100,000 became the primary driver, signaling that inflation concerns had spread beyond the lowest earners. Most recently, share gains have been broadly distributed across all households earning under $150,000, suggesting that value-seeking behavior has become widespread rather than concentrated among lower-income shoppers. Since late 2024, share gains have moderated across all income levels, suggesting that this shift towards discount grocers has stabilized.
