Leveraging Consumer Edge Data to Understand Target’ Revenue Decline’s Weak Sales Performance
General merchandise retailer Target Corporation (TGT) recently reported a revenue decline of -2.8%, close to CE Implied Reported growth of -2.2%, and lower than consensus of -0.7%.
Management noted that the decline in net sales was driven by the continued deterioration in consumer confidence, uncertainty related to tariffs, and backlash due to the company pulling back on DEI. Consumer Edge transaction data shows that Target’s weak performance may be more company specific rather than only reflecting a general decline in discretionary spending. CE data shows that Target underperformed Walmart across all segments in Q1, with the most significant gap occurring among the lowest income cohorts. This dynamic suggests that lower-income consumers are responding poorly to Target’s offerings, potentially signaling trouble ahead as the company implements price hikes due to tariffs.
Management also noted that the decline was driven by a 2.4% drop in traffic and a 1.4% decrease in average ticket. Consumer Edge Cohort data reflected these dynamics, as growth in average spend per customer decelerated compared to Q4 across every age cohort. While shoppers under 35 maintained relatively flat year-over-year spending, all older age cohorts experienced declines. This age disparity may reflect younger consumers’ greater tendency for digital shopping as Target experienced growth driven by same-day delivery through Target Circle 360 in Q1.
Leverage Consumer Edge transaction to see how Target consumers respond to store remodels and digital expansion following disappointing Q1 results.
About the Authors
Harsh Masher is an Insights Analyst for the CEIC.
