Since the U.S. launched military operations against Iran on February 28, Americans are paying nearly 80 cents more per gallon every time they fill up. The sharp increase in gas prices has prompted consumers to seek the most affordable options.
Warehouse clubs have long marketed below-market fuel as a core membership benefit — Costco, for instance, has been known to maintain lower gas prices even when national averages rise, sometimes pricing up to 30 cents per gallon below competitors, according to reports. Sam’s Club and BJ’s operate similarly.
Consumer Edge credit and debit card data can break out fuel purchases from merchandise for retailers that sell both — a capability that makes it possible to measure, in near real-time, whether consumers are actually shifting their fueling behavior. The answer, in the first full week after the war dominated headlines, is yes. Costco’s share of total U.S. gas station transactions rose 30 basis points week-over-week to 5.7% in the week ended March 8, while Sam’s Club and BJ’s each gained 10 basis points.
All three clubs moving in the same direction in the same week points to a channel-level shift, not noise. With gas prices still rising, we will be monitoring the data to understand whether this shift accelerates in the weeks ahead — and whether what began as a one-week signal becomes a sustained rotation toward value-driven fuel destinations.
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