Market Hit: CE Transact Data Reveals Relative Strength of Off-Price Retailers Amid Tough Consumer Backdrop

Off-price retailer TJX Companies (TJX), who owns brands including T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, recently reported US Revenue growth up 9.7% year over year.

On the heels of a tough print by Dillard’s, in which management cited a challenging consumer backdrop, eyes turned to see if the off-price department stores might stand to benefit. TJX looks to have done just that, beating estimates and reflecting an environment wherein off-price retailers have held a more consistent share of customers’ wallets, versus their full-price peers, whose share has kept shrinking through the year.

In addition to helping investors forecast company-reported sales growth, CE data transaction is leveraged by our corporate clients to gain timely insight into the competitive landscape across consumer industries. In today’s report, we highlight the utility of CE data for department stores.

TJX Revenue Growth

TJX’s 9.7% revenue growth is close to Consumer Edge’s implied reported growth of 9.5%. The company also beat consensus estimates on comparable sales, gross margin, and earnings.

TJX Consumers’ Change of Wallet Share

As CE’s US Transact data mirrored Dillard’s recent sales miss and TJX Companies’ beat, we can see those results in the context of a diverging landscape for off-price and full-line retailers. CE’s wallet share analysis highlights how full-price department stores’ share of wallet has continued to deteriorate through the year, while off-price names have held steadier.

*Wallet share defined as percentage of spend for the indicated industry group relative to total CE Panel spend.

Consumer Edge is the leading provider of alternative data for consumer spending behavior, and the only provider of global revenue signals. If you’d like to benefit from using Transact US or other products for department stores, retail in general, and other industry data year-round to track trends and market hits like these, reach out to insights@consumeredge.com.

About the Authors

Michael Gunther is the VP Head of Insights for the CEIC. Explore more of his insights here and follow him on LinkedIn.

Alex Breslin-Johnson is a Senior Insights Analyst for the CEIC. Follow him on LinkedIn.