Global coffee operator Starbucks (SBUX) recently reported US revenue growth of 11.5%, identical to CE Implied Reported growth of 11.5%. 

CE US Transact data also provides insight into comparable sales growth. The company reported US comparable sales growth of 7%, close to CE Implied Reported growth of 6.3% and below North America SSS consensus of 8%. 

Starbucks US Sales Growth vs CE US Panel Data

Starbucks US SSS Growth vs CE US Panel Data

One future revenue growth driver is expansion into smaller cities, highlighted by Starbucks’ CEO on its recent earnings call. He stated, “We see significant headroom for new store growth in underpenetrated areas in the U.S., including smaller cities”.

CE US Transact CSA* data can provide a sense for what % of sales come from non-major metropolitan areas and how fast these different markets are growing. The data suggests that relative to the overall Limited-Service restaurant industry, Starbucks has an opportunity to expand into smaller cities, and at an opportune time, as rural markets have outperformed for the past 4 quarters.

Starbucks Rural Sales % of Total

 Period is Calendar Quarter, not Fiscal Quarter

Starbucks Rural vs. Metropolitan Sales Growth YoY

 Period is Calendar Quarter, not Fiscal Quarter

Limited-Service Metropolitan vs. Rural Spend (YoY)

Consumer Edge is the leading provider of alternative data for consumer spending behavior, and the only provider of global revenue signals. If you’d like to benefit from using Transact US or other products for limited-service restaurants, retail, and other industry data year-round to track trends and dynamics like these, reach out to insights@consumeredge.com.

Katherine Bjorkman is the Director of Insights for the CEIC. Explore more of her insights here and follow her on LinkedIn.