Insight Flash: Consumer Edge data analyzes how Jersey Mike’s grew to be the 3rd largest US sandwich chain
Blackstone is reportedly in talks to acquire Jersey Mike’s Subs, a company known for its fresh cut meats and cheeses and made to order grilled subs. Using Consumer Edge transaction data, we analyze the overall sandwich market, and Jersey Mike’s growth alongside top competitors, to better understand how it grew to be the 3rd largest US sandwich chain by system-wide sales.
Jersey Mike’s Sandwich Industry Market Share Growth
Jersey Mike’s has been gaining market share in the mature sandwich industry primarily due to rapid unit expansion. According to CE data, Jersey Mike’s share has grown from 6% in 2019 to 13% in the most recent quarter. These gains have been primarily at the expense of both Subway and Panera Bread, who have both lost roughly 4% of their share since 2019. Other peer market shares have been roughly flat during the same period.
Jersey Mike’s Spend Growth vs. Top Competitors
Growth in the industry has been relatively flat post Covid but Jersey Mike’s has been the exception to the rule due to its aggressive unit expansion. According to the CEO, they had 2,700 locations at the end of 2023 with plans to open an additional 350 in 2024. Annual unit growth has been around 13-15%, a rate the CEO believes they can sustain into the foreseeable future. Notably on spend growth, Jersey Mike’s top 3 competitors Subway, Panera Bread and Arby’s are all growing slower than the overall industry over the past four quarters. On transaction growth, Subway and Panera Bread have underperformed over the same period. This could be because their store base is much more mature and they aren’t expanding anywhere near the rate as Jersey Mike’s.
Jersey Mike’s Average Ticket Growth vs. Competitors
Jersey Mike’s has had the second lowest average ticket growth since 2019, only slightly above Panera Bread as of the most recent quarter. This signifies that Jersey Mike’s growth is primarily through transaction growth compared to its peer group. This compares to top competitor Subway with average ticket up 57% and the overall peer group up 45%, significantly below Jersey Mike’s up 31%. Note that average ticket is influenced by both rising prices and changes in basket size.
Jersey Mike’s Cross-Shop Analysis
Jersey Mike’s Cross-shop analysis reveals a growing loyalty among its customer base. The number of Jersey Mike’s customers who also shopped at a competitor sandwich brand has been falling over time.
Jersey Mike’s Transactions Per Customer
In conjunction with recent cross-shop behavior, quarterly transactions per individual at Jersey Mike’s has been relatively flat since 2020. This implies that consumers could be dining at sandwich shops less, but opting for Jersey Mike’s when they do.
Growth Opportunities in Rural Markets
According to CE data, Jersey Mike’s is underpenetrated in rural markets by approximately 3.5% relative to their Limited-Service Quick Service restaurant subindustry, which includes their peers. This indicates that despite their mass expansion as of late, they still have opportunities to continue to grow unit count in other parts of the country.
From restaurants to retail to home & garden shopper behavior, Consumer Edge data offers an exciting glimpse into market insights in the United States and across the globe.
Consumer Edge is the leading provider of alternative data for consumer spending behavior, and the only provider of global revenue signals. If you’d like to benefit from using CE Transact US, CE Vision, or other products for Jersey Mike’s insights, restaurant data, and other industry data year-round to track trends and market hits like these, reach out to insights@consumer-edge.com.
About the Authors
Greg Potter is a Financial Analyst for the CEIC. Explore more insights and follow him on LinkedIn.
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