Is Target’s refreshed back-to-school strategy resonating with families? Our data suggests it may be.
Consumer Edge data shows spending by households with children accelerated more sharply into July: +1.4 pts more than households without children, compared with -0.1 pts in 2025 and -0.7 pts in 2024.
That timing lines up with Target’s increased focus on back-to-school. On today’s earnings call, management said it is seeing broad-based strength across school supplies, kids apparel, beauty and back-to-college, with “busy families” responding to the combination of newness, style and value.
How business leaders use this data
- Merchandising teams compare spend growth for households with children against households without, week by week, to see which cohort a seasonal push is actually reaching.
- Strategy teams measure how far forward a season is pulling, tracking the June-to-July shift across several years instead of reading one quarter on its own.
- Insights analysts test what management said on the call against transaction data from the same weeks, rather than waiting a quarter to find out whether it held.
Notes: Consumer Edge U.S. credit and debit card data. Figures show the June-to-July change in year-over-year spend growth at Target for households with children less households without children, in percentage points.
