With the housing market still struggling to regain momentum, the type of home furnishing purchase appears to matter more. The average 30-year mortgage rate moved above 7% this week for the first time since early 2025, potentially putting further pressure on a market already in its fourth year of stagnant home sales. Earlier optimism around a housing recovery faded as mortgage rates moved higher again.
Consumer Edge data shows a widening divide within home furnishings. Retailers more oriented toward decor, housewares and smaller, ongoing home purchases (e.g., HomeGoods, Williams-Sonoma) have increasingly outperformed the broader category, while furniture-led retailers more exposed to major furnishing occasions (e.g., Ashley Furniture, Rooms To Go) have fallen behind. Broad home retailers with exposure to both major furniture purchases and smaller replacement or refresh needs (e.g., Wayfair, IKEA) have generally landed between those two groups.
That divergence could become increasingly relevant if higher mortgage rates continue to constrain housing turnover. With more homeowners staying put, spending may skew toward maintaining and refreshing an existing home rather than the larger furnishing purchases that often accompany a move.
How business leaders use this data
- Strategy teams at home retailers benchmark their growth against peers grouped by purchase occasion, not just the category overall.
- Category managers track monthly shifts between refresh and full-room spend to plan assortment and inventory before quarterly results confirm the trend.
- Marketing teams monitor how spend responds to macro shifts like mortgage rates to size demand and time promotions.
Notes: Retailers are grouped by typical purchase occasion and exposure to major home-furnishing needs. Lines show YoY spend growth relative to overall home furnishings, in percentage points; zero represents performance in line with the category. Data through August 2026.
