The latest surge in oil prices is creating another potential source of pressure on U.S. consumers, but the squeeze at the pump did not begin with the most recent move. Consumer Edge data shows how that increase has been reshaping consumer wallets, with gas taking a greater share of card spending across income groups while a number of other categories have given up share. The shifts do not necessarily mean higher gas spending is directly causing declines elsewhere, but they offer a window into how the composition of consumer wallets has been changing as energy costs rise.
Gas was already taking a larger share of consumer wallets well before the latest surge in oil prices. Consumer Edge data shows the YoY increase in gas wallet share turned positive in March and peaked in May at roughly +1.2 percentage points for consumers earning under $60,000 and for those earning $60,000-$100,000, compared with about +0.9 points for those earning $100,000 or more. While that pressure eased from the May peak, by August gas was still taking roughly 0.75 percentage points more of the wallet for consumers earning under $100,000, versus about 0.6 points more for higher-income consumers. With the latest move higher in oil prices occurring in September, consumers were already entering this newest shock with more of their wallets being directed toward the pump.
As Gas Takes More of the Wallet, Grocery Gives Up the Most
As gas took a larger share of consumer wallets, a number of other categories lost share, but the magnitude of those shifts varied considerably. Grocers stood out, losing 37 basis points of wallet share in the March through August period compared with the same six months of 2025, more than twice the pace of decline seen a year earlier. Importantly, this category captures spending at merchants classified as grocers and does not include grocery purchases made at broadline retailers such as Walmart. The decline therefore should not be interpreted as a measure of total U.S. grocery spending and could reflect grocery share gains at retailers like Walmart.
Home improvement, apparel and several restaurant and service categories also lost wallet share. Most did not show the same acceleration, as those share losses started well before March.
Grocery Is Losing Wallet Share Across Every Income Group
The decline in Grocers’ wallet share has also been remarkably broad-based across income groups. Compared with the same six months of 2025, Grocers lost 31 to 42 basis points of wallet share in every income cohort, with the largest decline among consumers earning $80,000-$100,000. The consistency across income groups suggests this is not simply a story of lower-income consumers being forced to reallocate spending as gas takes a larger bite out of their budgets, even though the increase in gas wallet share has been more pronounced at the lower end.
The Next Pressure Point May Extend Beyond the Pump
The pressure may not end at the gas pump. Diesel prices have also surged to record levels, raising the cost of moving goods through the U.S. economy. Higher transportation costs can increasingly impact the prices that consumers pay at the register. Recent producer-price data are already showing that upstream pressure: diesel prices rose sharply in August and accounted for more than a third of the increase in goods prices for producers.
Grocery could be one of the categories to watch, given how frequently food moves through the supply chain and the additional transportation and refrigeration requirements for many perishable products. Apparel and other retail categories could face similar pressure as companies move merchandise ahead of the holiday season. For consumers already allocating more of their wallets toward fuel, higher diesel costs could therefore create a second source of pressure if they begin showing up more meaningfully in the prices of everyday goods.
How business leaders use this data
- Category managers track wallet share month by month to see which categories absorb a fuel price move, instead of waiting for quarterly results to show it.
- Grocery and retail strategy teams compare share loss across income cohorts to size which shopper segments are reallocating spend and by how much.
- Insights teams benchmark a single category against the full basket to separate a company-specific problem from a wallet-wide shift.
Notes: Wallet share is a category’s share of total consumer card spend. Figures compare March-August 2026 with March-August 2025 and March-August 2024. Financial services, insurance, pharmaceuticals, consumer packaged goods and commercial supplies are excluded from the category charts. Gas is charted separately; telecom is excluded as a pre-existing pricing trend. Categories moving less than 5 basis points are not shown.
