Last week’s results from Gap highlighted a widening divergence between two of its brands.
Old Navy’s softer sales provide another example of the pressure facing lower- and middle-income consumers. Consumer Edge data shows Old Navy materially overindexes to these shoppers relative to the broader apparel category, a similar dynamic to Foot Locker and Finish Line, which have also been recent weak spots. Taken together, the results add to evidence that lower- and middle-income consumers are bearing more of the impact of economic pressure and inflation concerns.
The Gap brand is telling a very different story. Our data shows Gap has gained YoY market share for 20 consecutive months, with recent gains most pronounced among younger shoppers.
Its recent collaborations may be one reason why. Gap’s Harlem’s Fashion Row collection launched in February and its Hailey Bieber “The Hailey Jean” collaboration launched in July. In both launch weeks, spending growth among 18-34 year olds surged to nearly 70% YoY, while growth among shoppers 35+ remained more subdued.
That dynamic suggests Gap’s efforts to put the brand back into the cultural conversation are resonating particularly strongly with younger consumers, while Old Navy faces a more challenging backdrop among its core customer.
With a new Old Navy CEO taking the helm, it will be interesting to see whether the brand can regain momentum despite that tougher consumer backdrop. We’ll be watching for signs of a turn in the data.
How business leaders use this data
- Apparel brand teams measure how a collaboration or capsule drop lands week by week, and which age cohort it actually reached, instead of waiting for the quarterly print.
- Strategy teams at multi-brand retailers track share by banner month over month, so a gain at one nameplate does not mask a decline at another.
- Insights teams benchmark a banner’s customer base against the wider category to size how exposed it is to pressure on lower- and middle-income shoppers.
Notes: Consumer Edge U.S. credit and debit card data. Chart shows weekly U.S. year-over-year spend growth at Gap ex Factory, split by cardholder age. Gap Inc. reported second quarter fiscal 2026 results on August 27, 2026.
