Insight Flash: CE data was highly predictive of revenue growth for First Watch Restaurant Group and revealed its success in combating “check management.”

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG), a family dining restaurant that specializes in brunch, reported their quarterly earnings this week. Consumer Edge implied reported data was a market hit.

Outperforming many of their competitors, First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) reported +17% yoy revenue growth, close to CE’s implied reported growth rate of +16% and above consensus of +14%. 

First Watch Restaurant Group YoY

The company’s success this quarter was in part due to consumers meeting higher prices without trading down. Unlike many other competitors like Waffle House and Cracker Barrel, First Watch appears to have been able to avoid “check management” whereas other Family Dining restaurants are seeing average ticket growth decelerate and customers attempt to manage through inflationary pressures.

Average Ticket YoY Change

Broadening the analysis to the entire universe of public and private Full-Service restaurant concepts, the data uncovers other companies seeing accelerating average ticket growth from Q1 to Q2, signaling success in battling check management. Notably, steakhouses including Ruth’s Chris, Fleming’s, Texas De Brazil, and Saltgrass top the list.

Average Ticket YoY Growth Acceleration

Evaluation includes the top 50 full-service restaurants by calendar 2023Q2 panel spend

Consumer Edge is the leading provider of alternative data for consumer spending behavior, and the only provider of global revenue signals. If you’d like to benefit from using Transact US or other products for gas station and convenience stores, retail, and other industry data year-round to track trends and dynamics like these, reach out to insights@consumeredge.com.

Michael Gunther is the VP Head of Insights for the CEIC. Explore more of his insights here and follow him on LinkedIn.