Insight Flash: Amid increasing competition in the grocery space, Consumer Edge transaction data explores grocery trends and shifts in market share across the UK.
The UK grocery space has become increasingly competitive in recent years, as tighter consumer budgets and aggressive pricing strategies from discounters Lidl and Aldi, along with shifting shopper preferences toward online delivery and convenience formats, have forced traditional supermarkets to re-evaluate their pricing and channel strategies to retain customers.
Consumer transaction data – in particular, credit and debit card data – can provide valuable real-time insights into this dynamic and critical sector. In our inaugural UK Grocery industry report, we use Consumer Edge’s market-leading UK transaction data panel to to shed light on:
- Trends in consumer spend by retailer over the second quarter of 2025
- Changes in market share so far in Q2 2025 among the major grocery players
- A closer look at the impact of Co-op’s recent security breach on its sales across the UK
Key Insights in UK Grocery Trends
Ocado, Lidl, Tesco, and Sainsbury’s continued to outpace the grocery industry average so far in 2025Q2, while Morrison’s and Aldi were flat and The Co-op, Iceland, and Asda lagged behind.
Tesco and Lidl gained the most market share over the past year (2025Q2 to-date vs. 2024Q2) while Asda was the biggest share donor, losing nearly 1 percentage point of overall spend share over that timeframe.
Co-op’s sales have declined sharply in recent weeks following a disruptive cyberattack which hit the retailer on April 30th, with rolling 7D YoY spend growth in our data tracking at -22% as of the most recent datapoint (May 15th).
Quarter-to-Date Trends Reveal Grocery Industry Winners and Losers
Using CE’s spend data, we compared individual brands’ growth against that of the overall UK grocery industry growth for the quarter to date (data through May 15th) to identify the best and worst performers, finding that:
- Online grocery platform Ocado continues to lead the field in the second quarter of 2025, with YoY growth 13pts higher than overall grocery spend growth QTD – although its Q2 pace represents a modest deceleration from +17pts above industry growth in Q1.
- Discounter Lidl (+6pts) again outperformed the industry benchmark as shoppers continue to seek value amid ongoing budget pressure from inflation – however close competitor Aldi lost ground Q/Q, slipping from +3pts to flat with the industry benchmark. Interestingly, both discounters appear to have underperformed in the days surrounding Easter – perhaps a function of the Easter shift and consumers “trading up” to more premium retailers such as Waitrose, which outpaced the average by 2.5% QTD, a healthy acceleration from -1% in last quarter.
- Both Tesco (+3pts) and Sainsbury (+2pts) managed to achieve above-average growth despite their size, indicating that strategic initiatives in product quality (such as hundreds of new rollouts across Tesco’s Finest range), customer satisfaction, and price matching against the discounters are resonating with consumers.
- The Co-op, is once again lagging the broader industry by a significant margin (-7.5pts, after trailing the industry by just a point in Q1) following a serious cyberattack which impacted its operations for several weeks in early May, leading to severe stockage issues.
- Morrisons managed to outgrow the industry as a whole by 1% so far QTD, though growth may be poised to deteriorate as the company carries out planned store closures and service discontinuations.
- Asda again posted the poorest relative performance, trailing by 8pts, despite recent attempts to win back shoppers with aggressive price-cuts – indicating that the turnaround under new chairman Allan Leighton is not yet bearing fruit.
Market Share: Tesco and Lidl Gain at the Expense of Asda and Co-op
CE’s absolute spend data also sheds light on industry market share and how it has evolved over time. Major takeaways include:
- Tesco remains the largest grocery retailer in the UK by a significant margin, with 28.9% of overall spend in 2025Q2 – up by 0.7% vs. Q2 of last year. Sainsbury’s came in second place with its share relatively stable at 16.1%.
- Asda was again the biggest share donor, having ceded nearly a full percentage point of share from 2024Q2 (12.9%) to 2025Q2 (12.1%).
- Lidl garnered an additional 0.3% of overall spend over the past year – putting its total share at 7.1%.
- The Co-op saw its share drop by 0.4% vs. last year, owing to long-running underperformance compounded by cyberattack-related issues over the most recent weeks of Q2.
Under the Microsco-op
Several high-profile hacks targeting UK retailers have taken place in recent weeks, with grocery retailers M&S and Co-op both suffering crippling breaches. Disruptions to Co-op’s delivery systems resulted in product availability issues – particularly in fresh categories like fruit, vegetables, meat and dairy – and even empty shelves across its store network. Using CE’s UK transaction data, we assess the impact of the hack on Co-op’s sales in recent weeks, finding that:
- Over the 2 weeks since the April 30th hack, Co-op’s rolling 7D YoY sales growth has declined sharply, tracking at -22% as of the most recent day of data (May 15th, see chart below).
- Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Waitrose, Aldi, and Lidl all saw growth inflect upward around the time that Co-op’s sales began to suffer, possibly indicating that these retailers benefited as customers sought alternatives to understocked Co-op and M&S (which was hacked shortly before Co-op) stores.
Amid the hack, Co-op prioritized delivery to its island and rural stores to ensure availability of essential products to customers with fewer alternatives. Using CE’s UK regional data, we found that sales did post smaller declines (relative to the grocery industry as a whole) in less-densely populated regions such as Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, while the drop was more pronounced in concentrated areas such as the West Midlands, London and South East England (see table below).
The UK grocery sector remains a dynamic and highly competitive landscape, shaped by shifting consumer behavior, value-driven preferences, and ongoing operational challenges. Our transaction data reveals that while leaders like Ocado, Tesco, and Lidl are capturing growth through strategic investments in value, quality, and convenience, others such as Asda and Co-op are facing mounting headwinds, from underwhelming turnaround efforts to disruptive cyberattacks. As economic pressures persist and digital transformation accelerates, retailers will need to remain agile and customer-focused to maintain momentum. Consumer Edge continues to offer a powerful lens into these evolving trends, helping stakeholders navigate the complexities of the UK grocery market with confidence.
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